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  • 2018動力電池產能過剩將達巔峰,競爭殘酷如何突圍?

    時間:2018年06月07日瀏覽:858次
    【字體:

    摘要:2018年動力電池領域風起云涌,動力電池價格將持續下降,產能過剩將達巔峰,競爭殘酷如何突圍?

    3月23日,科技部發布《2017年中國獨角獸企業發展報告》,寧德時代以200億美元的估值排在“2017中國獨角獸企業榜單”第6位,在入選的新能源汽車行業企業中排名首位。2018年動力電池領域風起云涌,動力電池價格將持續下降,產能過剩將達巔峰,競爭殘酷如何突圍?

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    2018年動力電池價格繼續下降

    近年來,新能源汽車動力電池銷售價格呈逐年下降趨勢。以寧德時代為例。招股說明書顯示2015-2017年度其動力電池系統銷售均價呈下降趨勢。從整個動力電池行業看,根據相關數據,2017年度,磷酸鐵鋰電池組價格下降約19.4%-23.7%。

    動力電池銷售價格下降的原因主要有兩個方面:一是隨著動力電池行業產能逐漸釋放,供不應求的市場格局發生變化,市場競爭加劇;二是受新能源汽車補貼退坡影響,行業整體銷售價格有所下降。受以上兩方面因素影響,預計2018年動力電池價格下降趨勢將延續。

    2018動力電池產能過剩達到巔峰

    在市場經濟下,商品價格的變動受供求關系的影響。動力電池產能方面,根據公開資料,2018年BYD、沃特瑪、國軒高科等7家動力電池企業預計產能之和達到135GWh,2020年上述7家企業預計產能之和達到178GWh。按一臺新能源車裝配45kWh電池計算,僅上述7家企業在2018年的產能可裝配300萬輛新能源車,在2020年的產能可裝配396萬輛。而實際上,我國新能源汽車預計產銷量2018年在110萬臺左右,2020年在200萬臺,況且目前國內的動力電池生產企業數量近140家。動力電池產能結構性過剩已是不爭的事實,成為這個行業揮之不去的陰霾。有研究表明,2018年國內動力電池產能過剩達到257%,達到巔峰。

    2018年動力電池行業集中度加強,兼并整合成為趨勢

    2017年,國內動力電池排名前三的廠商(寧德時代、比亞迪、沃特瑪)銷量總和占全國的比例為55%,排名前十的廠商銷量總和占比超過80%,可見行業集中度較高。

    2018年行業集中度或將進一步加強,原因如下:(1)車企動力電池認證時間長,車型生命周期內幾乎不會更換鋰電供應商;(2)車企與相關動力電池企業通過戰略合作或合資建廠等方式,進行深度綁定;(3)2018年補貼政策對動力電池能量密度要求進一步提高,凸顯扶優扶強;(4)2018年補貼退坡,新能源汽車成本下降要求動力電池價格進一步下降,而產能大的動力電池企業在價格方面更有優勢。

    關于盛泰

    盛泰是泰科、安費諾、莫仕及德爾福等多個全球知名品牌連接器集成供應商,致力于創造一個更安全、可持續、高效、互連的未來。10余年以來,盛泰為客戶提供的的連接解決方案經受嚴苛環境的驗證,持續推動著交通、工業應用、醫療技術、能源、數據通信和家居的發展。更多信息,請訪問 www.kosentech.com或關注盛泰官方微信“saintech”。

    行業集中度加強的背后是2018年動力電池行業競爭更加殘酷,兼并整合將成為趨勢。在動力電池2.0時代,產能集中釋放后的動力電池市場競爭格局將發生怎樣的變化?盛泰小編將繼續關注。


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